Testing Times for Corporate Profits We are about to enter the Q3 reporting season for US corporate profits against a backdrop of faster-than-expected deceleration in global economic growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is almost certain to revise down its economic growth forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 when it shortly releases its World Economic […]
About Said Desaque
I'm a professional economist in financial services, with a keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development.Watching the Fed: Structuring Quantitative Easing
Once Again…All Eyes on the Fed The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins another two day meeting today, with the economy still seemingly stuck in second gear. At the recent Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers, Fed Chairman Bernanke outlined the case for yet another tranche of quantitative easing, expressing “grave concern” about the state […]
Return to the Gold Standard? History Suggests Not To!
The Gold Standard: About to Return? The financial crisis of 2008-9 has laid the foundation for intense debate about the future of the global financial system. In the US, depending on the outcome of the Presidential election, the Republicans have declared an intention to explore the viability of returning the dollar to some form of […]
US Fiscal Policy: Not Credible Under the Ryan Plan
The Fiscal Choice Facing America The rapidly approaching US Presidential election seemingly presents America with a stark choice about the conduct of fiscal policy. In the short-term, however, the Obama Administration and Congress need to reach a compromise about how best to avoid the “fiscal cliff” scenario, where fiscal policy could be tightened by as […]
Top-line Weakness Evident In Q2 Profit Reports
Early Q2 US Corporate Profit Results We have just had the first busy week of Q2 profit reports from S&P500 companies. So far, 119 constituent companies have reported Q2 EPS. The following profile has emerged: 67% of reporting companies have beaten expected EPS, but only 38% have beaten revenue estimates. Over the past 4 years, […]
Not All Bad News For US Labour Market
US Job Openings: Rising Once Again While the overwhelming bulk of global economic news has been negative over the past few months, it is easy to overlook positive economic signals, however scant. For example, the Fed will no doubt have been disappointed by the rise in the civilian unemployment rate to 8.3% in July, despite […]
All Eyes On The Fed
All Eyes on the Fed The Fed has both enemies and supporters in Congress. The behaviour of the US central bank will be under extra scrutiny by Congress during a Presidential election year. The ideal backdrop for the Fed would be to sit on the fence. The Fed does not, however, have that luxury: the […]
Testing Times For US Corporate Profits
US Corporate Profits at an Interesting Juncture Earlier this week, I alluded that the third successive mid-year global economic slowdown could be more serious than the prior two episodes.China’s predicament of slowing growth is a formidable addition to the headwinds that are already in place. The implications for US corporate profits could be meaningful if […]
How To Fix Europe’s Financial System
Fixing Europe’s Unsustainable Nexus Governments within the eurozone have been dithering on the problem of fiscal sustainability for over two and a half years. The intensity of market-related concerns surrounding fiscal policy conduct has, not surprisingly, increased over this period. Meanwhile, theUKgovernment took the different approach of engaging in severe austerity, because it believed that […]
Spain’s Bailout: No Panacea
Lingering Spanish Banking Woes Being Resolved A major cause of the lingering concern towards the euro has been angst about the health of Spain’s banking system, resulting in an outflow of deposits to safer havens and disruption to funding markets. Hence, the decision by the Spanish government, after months of dithering, to seek €100bn of […]
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